Putin’s Chess Game With The West

Putin’s Chess Game With The West

Congratulations must be given to president Vladimir Putin for playing chess with Western leaders who in retrospect are still trying to work out what shaped peg should go in what shaped hole… Foam pegs BTW, they could hurt themselves with wooden pegs… If Putin was behind Trump being elected it was a genius operation that was excellently planned and executed… And not really that hard with a little bit of cultural understanding… And the end results, the fracturing of NATO as well as US and European economic alliances without a shot being fired…

On the eve of the G7 summit in Canada the French President Emmanuel Macron said today (June 7th, 2018) “Maybe the American president doesn’t care about being isolated today, but we don’t mind being six, if need be,”. This was in response to the US’s recent tariffs on steel and aluminum products from the EU, Mexico and Canada. And after the US backing out of the Iran nuclear deal and then threatening international companies with sanctions for dealing with Iran, many countries voiced their concerns about the US not keeping its word and overstepping their boundaries.

The results of Trump’s actions will see a realignment of alliances and countries stepping away from using the Dollar and SWIFT system for international trade. Countries already looking for or using alternative money transaction systems are Russia, China, India, Saudi Arabia, Iran and up to 18 others. China wants the Yuan to become the global reserve currency and are making moves for it to happen. China and Saudi Arabia will be doing their crude oil deals in Yuan not dollars in 2018. Russia and China are working their own financial transaction system to bypass the dollar. Turkey recently brought back its gold reserves from the U.S. Federal Reserve as have Germany and Hungary. These are just a few examples of how the international community is reacting and obviously worried about their relations with the U.S. and their trust in the Dollar.

Countries and people will continue to trade as they always have… If they cannot use one system they will find another, people adapt and develop, that’s human nature. So, why fear sanctions from a country that is seeking to isolate itself from the international community. If your funds and assets are outside of a system controlled by that country what can they do to enforce their sanctions, start a war? Well, for that you need allies….

If the Russians guided Trump’s election victory they knew what would happen, it was like giving the fat kid the keys to the candy store… Trump is flamboyant and from an American business background, where self-promotion and public image means more that substance. Now, having the top position in the country he is unchallengeable, so what if he upsets others, he’s the boss… This is fine if your hiring and firing employees but when you start treating other nations the same way, you lose allies… Brining in close family members to help you run a company is fine, but to run a country? Well, I suppose it worked for many a communist dictator… The Russians knew Trump’s ego would be in control, bold statements and knee jerk reactions rather than long term strategies.

The same can be said was done with Israel, if you give some people enough rope they will hang themselves. Israel’s recent actions in Gaza that have left over 120 Palestinians dead and 13,000 wounded, have brought international condemnation due to clear violations of use of force on protesters, journalist and medical staff. In comparison, there are British soldiers being charged in possible wrongful death cases 40 years after the incidents and could face prison time, and these actions were against terrorists. So, why is Israel immune from international laws? Such questions will only cause them further problems with their international trade and public image.

The results of Israel’s actions in Gaza will isolate them further from many countries, Non-Governmental Organizations and companies… Recently the Latin singer Shakira canceled concerts in Israel, the Argentinian soccer team also canceled a friendly match apparently in protest over the Gaza violence… The US has isolated itself many times recently at the UN while supporting Israel… Politically, is it wise to isolate yourself from your allies just to make a bold statement to appease fringe groups, what are the economic or defense benefits for your country?

The difference between Western leaders and those such as Putin is that in the West these days politicians are thinking short term and for their own interests, not their countries. Even though Putin has amassed considerable wealth, he acts in the interests of his country, not just for his buddies or family… In the West politicians are on a 4-year cycle, so they need to make their legacies and keep up their ratings within that time frame… How can you plan a country’s future if you are only looking at 4 to maybe 8 years into the future…?

I hear many stating the U.S does not need other countries etc… OK, take a look around where you are now: what products were made in your own country? Where is your food produced, canned or grown? These days we are all dependent on the global economy and to say otherwise is complete ignorance.

The Russians knew the consequences of guiding Trump’s election victory and now they have what they wanted. By letting Trump have his headlines and short-lived pseudo victories, he will cause a division that will be beneficial in fracturing old alliances, disassembling old structures and bringing new coalitions and partnerships for Russia.

For the rest of the world, I think we need to understand we are living in times of great change and be fluid enough to adapt to the new world order…

Orlando

TOHFF - CARD

 

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